Retail sales numbers have been quite erratic recently. The June number, however, was pointing decisively northwards. The 12 month growth rate was almost 3 percent. The monthly increase was over 1 percent.Over the last month or so, the data is beginning to trace out a clear picture. Monthly inflation data is stronger than expected; mortgage lending is ticking up, and now retail sales is recovering. We could be on the edge of a sudden surge in demand.
3 comments:
Recent months exhibit a lot of instability - what is that all about then?
These figures combine changes in both prices and volumes, and are therefore somewhat misleading.
There has been inflation over the period shown. I haven't checked to see what proportion of the increase shown above is from higher prices and what proportion is a change (not necessarily an increase) in volume of sales.
From everything I've seen and heard, I think volume of everything except necessities is flat or down.
It's called tourism: how much you want to bet the majority of that is London? It is an expected summer bounce.
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