Thursday, 23 July 2009

Half full, half empty

Here is another of those "half empty, half full" charts that the housing market has been producing recently.

If you are of a pessimistic persuasion, on a year-on-year basis gross mortgage lending is down almost 50 percent. An optimist, however, would point to the recent upward trend in lending, which definitely suggests the beginning of a recovery.


Anonymous said...

If you adjust your graph to include, say, 15 years or more of data the depth of the decline in mortgage lending will be more apparent. I suspect it would show a rise and then the current fall.

Anonymous said...

And when interest rates go to where they should be given QE and other UK commitments????

I look for a second phase of 15 - 25% house price falls.

The time to buy is at maximum interest rate levels. You know you can therefor afford the long term.

boiling frog said...

One could use the seasonal argument to account for it, but its such a pathetic attempt to go higher, I don't think I'll bother.

I'm not a bottom picker either.