Thursday, 23 July 2009

UK retail sales pick up in June

Retail sales numbers have been quite erratic recently. The June number, however, was pointing decisively northwards. The 12 month growth rate was almost 3 percent. The monthly increase was over 1 percent.

Over the last month or so, the data is beginning to trace out a clear picture. Monthly inflation data is stronger than expected; mortgage lending is ticking up, and now retail sales is recovering. We could be on the edge of a sudden surge in demand.


Anonymous said...

Recent months exhibit a lot of instability - what is that all about then?

carol said...

These figures combine changes in both prices and volumes, and are therefore somewhat misleading.

There has been inflation over the period shown. I haven't checked to see what proportion of the increase shown above is from higher prices and what proportion is a change (not necessarily an increase) in volume of sales.

From everything I've seen and heard, I think volume of everything except necessities is flat or down.

Anonymous said...

It's called tourism: how much you want to bet the majority of that is London? It is an expected summer bounce.