Retail sales numbers have been quite erratic recently. The June number, however, was pointing decisively northwards. The 12 month growth rate was almost 3 percent. The monthly increase was over 1 percent.
Over the last month or so, the data is beginning to trace out a clear picture. Monthly inflation data is stronger than expected; mortgage lending is ticking up, and now retail sales is recovering. We could be on the edge of a sudden surge in demand.