Tuesday, 7 April 2009

The crash is over in central London

According to Knight Frank, prime London real estate has hit the bottom. The only way is up.

Here are the key findings from their Prime Central London Index for March 2009

• Prices for prime residential properties in central London fell by a further 1.6% in March
• The peak to trough price fall has now reached -23.9%
• The rate of price falls has slowed sharply in recent months, with prices down only 6.7% in the first quarter of 2009 compared to 9.4% in the final quarter of 2008
• The number of prime London properties exchanging during March was 13% higher than
Feb and 26% higher than March 2008
• Viewing levels have increased by 38% in March on a year-on-year basis
• The number of new properties coming to the market in March fell by 42% on a year-on-year basis.

Liam Bailey, head of residential research, Knight Frank, commented:

“Prices are still falling across central London – however the evidence is mounting that not only is the rate of decline slowing appreciably, from monthly falls approaching 4% before Christmas to 1.5% and 1.6% in February and March, but also activity in the market has increased noticeably in the last two months.

The number of properties in the central London markets which exchanged rose by 26% on a year-on-year basis, and 13% on a month-on-month basis. Both February and March recorded more sales activity than the same period a year ago.

On the supply side the number of new properties coming to the market has fallen appreciably, with 42% fewer properties coming to the market in March this year compared to the same month a year earlier. The pipeline of new properties which we expect to see coming to the market in April is down 60% over the same period."

Somehow, I don't think things are going to recover quickly, but keep on dreaming Frank. There is no harm in it.


London estate agent said...

Prices down by a quarter in just over a year. Amazing. Who would have thought that back in 2006?

electro-kevin said...

Is this in real money or Mickey Mouse money ?

John McClane said...

According to Knight Frank, prime London real estate has hit the bottom. The only way is up

When did estate agents say any different?

Anonymous said...

Maybe this is a sign of future inflation. Against gold I'd expect property to fall for the next ten years, but in nominal terms it could go up due to QE.

Mark Wadsworth said...


@ LondonEA, I predicted it, as did most other Land Value Taxers who know about house price cycles.

Anonymous said...

Only another 37% decline to go. we are still in the denial stage. Especially those obnoxious estate agents.

John McClane said...

@ Anonymous 18:38
You mean against real value property values will fall but inflation will let them look good.

@ Anonymous 19:00
I will look at property prices in December. They haven't bottomed yet.

electro-kevin said...

Are they predicting a return to big city bonuses then ?

Anonymous said...

It is just nonsense; wishful thinking. It won't happen.

Anonymous said...

The bootom is still a long way off. The decline will take almost as long as the rise. The real price graphs of the last three property bubbles show this. The rise this time was 1996-2007. By that measure, London will not hit a real bottom until c. 2015, and the national average will take until c. 2018 to hit bottom.

It is possible that by the time we get through this the property market will be behaving differently, because of fundamental changes in the world economy, i.e. Asia will be where assets inflate, not here.

B. in C.

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