Since August 2007, sterling has fallen 23 percent against the euro. At the rate it is falling, we should see a one-to-one exchange rate sometime early in the new year.
Anyone fancy a trip to Europe this summer? Not me, I can't afford it.
I expect this to reverse soon. Sterling base rate is now lower than the ECB, and is priced in. When Trichet finally cuts near zero expect a relative recovery in the £.
I don't expect the sterling slide to continue much longer. It's just happened earlier than the Euro and Yen slides.
I believe that the pound will soon gain strength. The Euro economies have far more problems than the UK. It’s probably much harder to bring multiple countries economies out of recession whose interest rates are all tied.
Do you really think the GBP's going to fall much further? It's dropped a lot so far. I'm guessing that the unwinding of the carry trade has caused a fair bit of the drop with all the reductions in interest rates. Interest rates can't go down much further so I can't see a further drop being as precipitous as what we've had so far. Or should we all sell our pounds whilst they're still worth something!?
I'm afraid I HAVE to go to Europe this year - in-laws demand that I visit them. Oh well, a chance to lose weight and go on the wagon whilst getting a sun tan.
You must hedge now: three accounts: sterling, euro, dollar. Keep cash in all three to keep your options open and not risk being trapped on this fetid, toilet of an island.
I was listening to Peter Schiff's podcast and he recommended the currencies of the following countries: Singapore, Hong Kong, Sweden and Switzerland. But he was talking from a US investor perspective...
Since August 2007, sterling has fallen 23 percent against the euro. At the rate it is falling, we should see a one-to-one exchange rate sometime early in the new year.
16 comments:
Dear Alice,
What about a US dollar/Sterling chart?
Thank you in advance.
Rambo
I expect this to reverse soon. Sterling base rate is now lower than the ECB, and is priced in. When Trichet finally cuts near zero expect a relative recovery in the £.
I don't expect the sterling slide to continue much longer. It's just happened earlier than the Euro and Yen slides.
I would say Euro and dollar parity by xmas. Mark my words...
The military on Cyprus get a much better exchange rate than that.
I believe that the pound will soon gain strength. The Euro economies have far more problems than the UK. It’s probably much harder to bring multiple countries economies out of recession whose interest rates are all tied.
Just back from Paris. Painful experience.
Definitely interested in seeing similar charts for other rates.
Alice,
Do you really think the GBP's going to fall much further? It's dropped a lot so far. I'm guessing that the unwinding of the carry trade has caused a fair bit of the drop with all the reductions in interest rates. Interest rates can't go down much further so I can't see a further drop being as precipitous as what we've had so far. Or should we all sell our pounds whilst they're still worth something!?
Perhaps you'll be able to afford Greece, though, Alice.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3078296/the-true-extent-of-britains-debt.thtml
I'm afraid I HAVE to go to Europe this year - in-laws demand that I visit them. Oh well, a chance to lose weight and go on the wagon whilst getting a sun tan.
You must hedge now: three accounts: sterling, euro, dollar. Keep cash in all three to keep your options open and not risk being trapped on this fetid, toilet of an island.
"Fetid toilet"? Not far from the truth!
I was listening to Peter Schiff's podcast and he recommended the currencies of the following countries: Singapore, Hong Kong, Sweden and Switzerland. But he was talking from a US investor perspective...
Anyone have any thoughts on these?
Parity by xmas, for sure.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/3078296/the-true-extent-of-britains-debt.thtml
Parity - if you're lucky.
Hope GBP drops some more - I am looking to buy a PCB design package and the one I want happens to be British ;-)
The Eurozones problems are hidden behind the various activities of the 15 members whilst the UK's problems are there for everyone to see.
As its taken a battering I'm sticking with my GBP rather than sell at a low.
Chefdave.
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