Saturday, 25 October 2008

Being right 60 percent of the time means......



No comment needed.

I found this on calculated risk.

5 comments:

aSteve said...

A wonderful statement to focus upon.... Logically incoherent in the extreme. Since the 60/40 spit is a forecast, that statement - itself being a forecast - is also subject to the same uncertainty. Apply recursion and it is obvious what is so desperately awry with Greenspan's mindset.

Interestingly, this kind-of relates to a somewhat discredited study of "fuzzy logic" which was all the rage in the 80s. The problem is this: Logic - of the kind that tries to establish the truth (N.B. this is more general than Boolean logic which assumes only two states) can not embrace probabilities as a substitute for uncertainty. Uncertainty and probability are entirely different concepts. When you play a street game involving a pea and three shells... you've uncertainty about the location of the pea... but the domain is not amenable to probabilistic analysis - because the mark is unaware of the actual mechanics of the game. The exact same problem has arisen with the debt; risk metrics; structured credit; credit, equity and commodity derivatives & futures.

Anonymous said...

What this idiotic, pompous liar - I use the terms deliberately and with forethought - fails to acknowledge is that while many voices of experience were shouting "THIS IS A BUBBLE", he stuck his stupid nose in his misapplied Nobel-prizewinning formulae and allowed US sub-prime lenders rip off the whole world's financial system. Forecasting? He's a fool. And now the taxpayer bails them out? He's amoral.

B. in C.

Anonymous said...

what a waster

aSteve said...

Greenspan is, however, an interesting waster. His mere existence says a lot about politics and the global financial system.

I've been recommending everyone I can to read Greenspan's book "The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World" - though I urge you to borrow or buy a second hand copy rather than pay him royalties (there are several on Amazon Marketplace...) What is amazing about the book is that it its perspective... Greenspan is an old man now - it seems with little further ambition... he is fairly open about his lack of real insight.

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