Today, the Nationwide put out their latest house price index. Prices are now down 4 percent from their October 2007 peak. Furthermore, prices are also down year-on-year.
I think the really interesting bit is that this is just the beginning. But you have HBOS saying a 5% decline is likely and others saying 30% over 2 years.
It is hard to call a down market; look at the US, where house price deflation is accelerating.
Thanks. I don't think I have Adobe on my Mac Mini, I do a similar thing but there are more stages before I end up with the gif and my graphs don't look as nice.
Why would anyone buy a house right now? I mean that seriously. Once the sheep realise house prices will continue to fall sentiment will change abruptly. I think we are near that point.
Right now we have a lender-driven bust, as banks are pulling deals and potential buyers are whining that they are frozen out of the market. Public sentiment is that we need to get the banks lending again.
How long till these same potential buyers realise they dodged a bullet and they lose all interest in buying?
I think we are very close to that point. The US is already there. It won't take alot more "House crash" headlines till it finally sinks into people's minds.
And when it does, there'll be a calamity in the market. A good thing, mind.
Today, the Nationwide put out their latest house price index. Prices are now down 4 percent from their October 2007 peak. Furthermore, prices are also down year-on-year.
10 comments:
I think the really interesting bit is that this is just the beginning. But you have HBOS saying a 5% decline is likely and others saying 30% over 2 years.
It is hard to call a down market; look at the US, where house price deflation is accelerating.
We're in a down market. It's going to get alot worse very quickly.
There, I just called it.
Nick
Those charts are so cool. Can you do a post explaining how you do 'em?
Buckle up, we're going down and I for one can't wait to have house prices back at an affordable level for all.
Mark,
The charts;
1. Data is downloaded from the ONS and the BoE into excel.
2. In excel, I have a macro that does the formatting.
3. Cut and paste into adobe photoshop.
4. Save the chart as a gif file.
5. Uploaded into blogger.
From start to finish, the process takes about a minute.
Alice
Thanks. I don't think I have Adobe on my Mac Mini, I do a similar thing but there are more stages before I end up with the gif and my graphs don't look as nice.
I'm guessing when you inluding inflation its around a 5.5% drop. I.e. 4% + 6 months of inflation from Oct07-Apr08.
Andy,
I did take a look at inflation adjusted prices a while back. The number comes out at something close to what you suggest.
Alice
Mark,
Think abobe, colour coordination, (blues and pinks go well together) and Adobe.
Good luck
(btw, how about exchanging links?)
Alice
Why would anyone buy a house right now? I mean that seriously. Once the sheep realise house prices will continue to fall sentiment will change abruptly. I think we are near that point.
Right now we have a lender-driven bust, as banks are pulling deals and potential buyers are whining that they are frozen out of the market. Public sentiment is that we need to get the banks lending again.
How long till these same potential buyers realise they dodged a bullet and they lose all interest in buying?
I think we are very close to that point. The US is already there. It won't take alot more "House crash" headlines till it finally sinks into people's minds.
And when it does, there'll be a calamity in the market. A good thing, mind.
Nick
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