Friday, 13 July 2012

UK house prices - as flat as a board

UK house prices have been flat for two years. One month - the index is up a tadge, the next month it is down.

Don't you miss those conversations about the never ending increases in house prices. Where are those Estate Agents who would assure you that prices could never fall? The national obsession with property seems to be over.

I really should deflate house prices with inflation. How far have prices fallen in real terms? Perhaps next week, I will post an inflation adjusted chart.


Anonymous said...

Surelly regional variations as well as inflation would be important.

Kitz said...

The house price obsession will continue untill there is sound money.
How else can one save.
The pension plans I took out 25 years ago as a condition for
obtaining business loans are the worst investment I have ever made , and yes the banks were bent even then.

Kitz said...

Alice .. A thought ,when you publish your chart could you make it over the average mortgage length .
I wonder if anyone has ever lost money in the UK on a house purchase over the average mortgage length .
Of course there will be some who have lost out through forced sales .
Houses will remain stores of value untill the government can print them .

Electro-Kevin said...

London and the SE requires separate treatment surely ?

Electro-Kevin said...

...don't hold much with this graph if you won't examine what's happening in London.

There's always the risk of a ripple-out if London is booming.

It doesn't add up... said...

Can you update your regional data linked at the bottom of the blog? It seems to have become corrupted.

@Kitz: you have to look at values on an inflation adjusted basis if you want to see how good a store of value houses are. I did look at the Nationwide figures recently, and discovered that the average house price measured in today's money was about 92,000 in the 1980s - and also in the 1990s, so there was no real increase in over a decade. I think real house prices were also fairly stable from the 1950s to 1970. Prices fell in the 1930s, and were lower in the 1950s than the late 1940s.

jaffa said...

It is not just inflation that needs to be adjusted for. It is household income that is the most important factor, although inflation has put the RPI up by 17 percent in the last 3 years or so household income has generally only risen by 4 or 5 percent and in many cases has been flat or negative. Incomes are hard to get statistics on as a lot of self employed falsely report income to avoid tax, the great and the good are often paid via complex systems involving overseas accounts to minimise tax. The salary bill for the directors of large companies shows a 25 percent rise in the last 3 years but how that was paid and to whom is not clear, most public employees have had no rise and many in all walks of life have had their hours reduced. In all probability for the majority of UK home-owners their income has been almost static as have house prices as their disposable income has fallen.

AC said...

House prices have collapsed back to 1985 levels AND they are going lower, back to 1980 levels:

If you want a store of wealth you need a mix of gold, property (could use REITs or private home), shares (must be total market funds, tax protected with low costs e.g. FTSE 100 ETF in ISA) and bonds (again total market with low cost in ISA).

Just invest mechanically putting the same amounts in each year and after 30 plus years viola, you're rich ! You just need a safe public sector job so the poor can fund your savings.

Anonymous said...

More charts please Alice

Kitz said...

It doesn't add up
I did not make myself very clear perhaps because I am not sure off the point I trying to make ( that's honest )
Surely the mortgage debt is being paid off with devalued money doesn't that bring it back into equilibrium ? .