Michael Saunders, chief UK economist of Citigroup on the UK housing market....
At the moment the average loan to value for first time buyers is 76pc, compared with the more recent norm of 90pc. If LTVs stay where they are, or are regulated by the Government, you're talking about an even more severe fall. If you want to get the deposit and mortgage burden for a first-time buyer back to the average of the last 35 years with the current level of LTVs, then house prices need to fall another 65pc from their current level.
Where did these housing bears come from? Two years ago, no one was talking about a 65 percent decline in house prices. Now there is a bubble in apocalyptic forecasts.
I thought I was being outrageous predicting a 25 percent decline.