tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post3241094173889080627..comments2023-11-02T15:48:50.381+00:00Comments on UK Bubble UK Economy: It is overAlice Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05753570123987780947noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-73243871950485070052009-05-31T07:42:12.542+01:002009-05-31T07:42:12.542+01:00here is halifax data re spring bounce in last hous...here is halifax data re spring bounce in last housing crash: the floor was in 1995, and it wasn't a consistent path down, due to regular spring bounces! <br /><br />Q2 1989 69,850 peak<br />Q3 1989 69,659<br />Q4 1989 68,754<br />Q1 1990 69,103 spring bounce!<br />Q2 1990 68,980<br />Q3 1990 68,823<br />Q4 1990 68,895<br />Q1 1991 68,932 spring bounce!<br />Q2 1991 68,575<br />Q3 1991 67,807<br />Q4 1991 67,250<br />Q1 1992 65,882<br />Q2 1992 64,505<br />Q3 1992 63,926<br />Q4 1992 61,643<br />Q1 1993 61,662 spring bounce!<br />Q2 1993 62,321<br />Q3 1993 62,588<br />Q4 1993 62,868<br />Q1 1994 63,232 spring bounce!<br />Q2 1994 62,697<br />Q3 1994 62,636<br />Q4 1994 62,383<br />Q1 1995 62,340<br />Q2 1995 61,564<br />Q3 1995 61,115<br />Q4 1995 61,544<br />Q1 1996 62,453 spring bounce!<br />Q2 1996 63,880<br />Q3 1996 64,519<br />Q4 1996 66,094Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-70912829511166815162009-05-31T07:40:27.140+01:002009-05-31T07:40:27.140+01:00Here is halifax data: floor in 1995, and it wasn't...Here is halifax data: floor in 1995, and it wasn't a consistent path down.<br /><br />Q2 1989 69,850 peak<br />Q3 1989 69,659<br />Q4 1989 68,754<br />Q1 1990 69,103 spring bounce!<br />Q2 1990 68,980<br />Q3 1990 68,823<br />Q4 1990 68,895<br />Q1 1991 68,932 spring bounce!<br />Q2 1991 68,575<br />Q3 1991 67,807<br />Q4 1991 67,250<br />Q1 1992 65,882<br />Q2 1992 64,505<br />Q3 1992 63,926<br />Q4 1992 61,643<br />Q1 1993 61,662 spring bounce!<br />Q2 1993 62,321<br />Q3 1993 62,588<br />Q4 1993 62,868<br />Q1 1994 63,232 spring bounce!<br />Q2 1994 62,697<br />Q3 1994 62,636<br />Q4 1994 62,383<br />Q1 1995 62,340<br />Q2 1995 61,564<br />Q3 1995 61,115<br />Q4 1995 61,544<br />Q1 1996 62,453 spring bounce!<br />Q2 1996 63,880<br />Q3 1996 64,519<br />Q4 1996 66,094Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-21699952678016807722009-05-31T02:58:30.529+01:002009-05-31T02:58:30.529+01:00" Even at the height of the bubble, sales volumes ..." Even at the height of the bubble, sales volumes were surprisingly low. Since the crash began, volumes have fallen further" <br />Volume has fallen from about 90,000 transactions per month to around 30,000 transactions per month. I think this is a huge decrease creating a thin market. Thin markets tend to be volatile.<br />We shall see if this bounce is a real spring up or a moribund feline.boiling frognoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-23577747961149138332009-05-30T10:42:00.187+01:002009-05-30T10:42:00.187+01:00Alice, where's the funding going to come from?Alice, where's the funding going to come from?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18279507510143714975noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-14829094894569199602009-05-30T09:22:41.668+01:002009-05-30T09:22:41.668+01:002 words - sucker rally2 words - sucker rallyCharlie Bnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-54032724894674314052009-05-30T07:49:23.127+01:002009-05-30T07:49:23.127+01:00Thanks for the article, Alice. I have two favourit...Thanks for the article, Alice. I have two favourite economists, you and Merryn Somerset Webb. On this one, you two do not agree! <br /> <br />http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/why-its-still-not-time-to-buy-property-14784.aspx?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Money%2BMorning<br /> <br />MSW's article is an old recycled article, but relevant nonetheless. <br /> <br />I completley agree with you about Inflation, and am positioned for this. <br /> <br />On housing, during a severe worldwide recession, I'm not sure. Will the UK buck the world housing trend? <br /> <br />I am familiar with Pakistan, which has experienced 25% inflation for the last 2 years. During this time, so I understand, high house prices have actually fallen, according to a friend who lives there. <br /> <br />Could the same happen in the UK?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-75875804447334250782009-05-29T22:20:27.979+01:002009-05-29T22:20:27.979+01:00Great blog! I'm a regular reader here.
I find...Great blog! I'm a regular reader here.<br /><br />I find it hard to believe that houses in UK are actually going up in price, so I have a question about the methodology being used.<br /><br />Here in the US we have several methods. <br /><br />One of them is the median price of houses sold. That's extremely unreliable, because the mix affects the reported pricing. <br /><br />Let's say, in January three "low" priced houses sold at $200,000. Then your median price is $200,000.<br /><br />In February, one more expensive house sold, at $500,000. Then the median price will go "up" 150%. Of course it doesn't mean any of the houses got any more expensive, it's just the mix that changed.<br /><br />The most reliable metric we have is S&P Case-Shiller index, which tracks the *same* houses. It has been showing a relentless decline in prices for a long time now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-5641689447989481032009-05-29T21:57:47.351+01:002009-05-29T21:57:47.351+01:00Big Nope!
Even though N'Wide will deny it, it's j...Big Nope!<br /><br />Even though N'Wide will deny it, it's just higher-enf junk coming on the market as recession moves up the social scale.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com