tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post2562960356103268844..comments2023-11-02T15:48:50.381+00:00Comments on UK Bubble UK Economy: Mortgage approvals are fallingAlice Cookhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05753570123987780947noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-29533828972108998822008-04-30T13:14:00.000+01:002008-04-30T13:14:00.000+01:00We could always bring it back to the median by hav...We could always bring it back to the median by having a bit of wage inflation whilst other prices stay stagnant. :)<BR/><BR/>I'm dreaming, I know. <BR/><BR/>Some more serious thoughts :-<BR/><BR/>1) My understanding is that when bubbles collapse they generally overshoot a bit, but not necessarily massively.<BR/><BR/>2) The reality most of us see will be slightly different than the picture that these aggregated averages show us. Different parts of the housing market will experience different price decreases. I would expect the plasterboard-and-spit 'urban flats' built for the buy-to-let investors to see a bigger price decrease than the average. Maybe 50% from peack to trough.<BR/><BR/>3) To see the effect on first time buyers, I'd want to know what the ratio between current prices just on the type of homes they buy, and average household incomes of the particular demographic that buy them are.powermanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13670631915567128744noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-50806816923345644022008-04-30T12:54:00.000+01:002008-04-30T12:54:00.000+01:00Regarding how far prices will fall: saw something ...Regarding how far prices will fall: saw something in FT yesterday. If I remember correctly, apparently the ratio of annual wages to average house price is now on average x 6. The longterm median is x 3.5. Would it be unfair to reckon on a 40% drop, to bring it back to the median? That would be nice. Might take a while, though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-3366036701690027532008-04-30T00:41:00.000+01:002008-04-30T00:41:00.000+01:00Northern Ireland will be OK - don't you know about...Northern Ireland will be OK - don't you know about the peace dividend/things are different now/it would be a great place if it wasn't for the troubles/etc,etc<BR/><BR/>When a 3 bed detached house in a development in a village of about 400 people (2 pubs and 1 grocery store), 50 miles from Belfast is on sale for over 300k - there's definitely something wrong.<BR/><BR/>When a 1/3 acre greenfield building site with outline planning for a 1600 sq ft bungalow sells for 240k - before you even start to build it! - that's screwed up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-46297108657608034212008-04-29T20:22:00.000+01:002008-04-29T20:22:00.000+01:00This comment has been removed by the author.Adminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276353486684443523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-42981685168277721292008-04-29T20:21:00.000+01:002008-04-29T20:21:00.000+01:00Forest views.http://www.ipd.com/OurProducts/Indice...Forest views.<BR/><BR/>http://www.ipd.com/OurProducts/Indices/Ireland/tabid/435/Default.aspx<BR/><BR/>.pdf of their last quarterly property index<BR/><BR/>http://www.ipd.com/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=2l3zNUZM8hM%3d&tabid=435&mid=4342<BR/><BR/>Love the blog, btw.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/><BR/>RawdonAdminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276353486684443523noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-40863522017278890842008-04-29T19:45:00.000+01:002008-04-29T19:45:00.000+01:00AAThe irish property - north and south - is just m...AA<BR/><BR/>The irish property - north and south - is just mad. <BR/><BR/>Perhaps, I should post something on Northern Ireland. I'll try to do something in the next couple of days.<BR/><BR/>The republic is more a problem. I am not sure where to get any decent data.<BR/><BR/>Can anyone help? A link is all I need.<BR/><BR/>AliceAlice Cookhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05753570123987780947noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-22289959212376143762008-04-29T19:38:00.000+01:002008-04-29T19:38:00.000+01:00Pleaze Please give comment on N/S Ire once in a w...Pleaze Please give comment on N/S Ire <BR/>once in a while Im hanging on your every sylible, long time now 4 months<BR/>Go AAAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-24643173498025146822008-04-29T19:00:00.000+01:002008-04-29T19:00:00.000+01:00i love that graph..."a thing of beauty is a joy fo...i love that graph..."a thing of beauty is a joy forever"<BR/><BR/>i just started using Property Bee, it tracks price changes on Rightmove...very interesting...in just the week I've had it, I've seen several asking prices reduced up to 8%, and a handful of properties changed from "Under Offer" to "Available". It's definitely going down big time. Like you say, it's just a question of how long it takes to REALLY drop.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-16464105925186138112008-04-29T18:06:00.000+01:002008-04-29T18:06:00.000+01:00Somebody make this blog go away. I can't stand the...Somebody make this blog go away. I can't stand these charts anymore. They are so miserable. Everything seems to be falling apart.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2948538160252327076.post-83815372393518855002008-04-29T18:05:00.000+01:002008-04-29T18:05:00.000+01:00This blog just gets better. Keep up the good work....This blog just gets better. Keep up the good work.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com