Friday, 11 November 2011
UK population projections; there will be more of us, and we will be much older
The ONS has produced an alarming population projection. With a decade or so, the UK will be home to at least 70 million people.
Over the last couple of decades, around half of the growth in the population has come from migration. Suppose, for a moment, that the UK economy continues to stagnate, while emerging market and low income countries continue to grow rapidly. What would happen if migration flows were to dry up?
Currently, there is a clamour to reduce migration. Our much beloved Home Secretary - Teresa May - finds herself in trouble on this very issue. Notwithstanding the passport chaos from this summer, it is getting harder for people to move to the UK.
The indigenous UK population tends to be much older than the new arrivals. If migrants fail to arrive, then the ratio of workers to pensioners could well be much lower than the ones suggested in this short video.
But be careful for what you wish for. If the migrants stop coming, who will do the work and pay taxes to maintain those generous state pensions?