Tuesday, 7 July 2009

Green shoots?

From the American Bankers Association:

A record wave of job losses is being cited as a major factor in a record rate of consumer delinquencies in the first quarter of 2009, according to the American Bankers Association’s Consumer Credit Delinquency Bulletin.

More than two million Americans lost their jobs in the first three months of the year with more than 6 million jobs lost since the recession began. The composite ratio, which tracks delinquencies in eight closed-end installment loan categories, rose to 3.23 percent of all accounts (seasonally adjusted) compared to 3.22 percent of all accounts in the previous quarter.

The delinquent balances on those accounts also rose from 3.16 percent to 3.35 percent of total balances due (not seasonally adjusted). The ABA report defines a delinquency as a late payment that is 30 days or more overdue.


mike said...

America is in big trouble. Rising interest rates are going to crucify those with big debts. This crisis is far from over. I believe the crisis will be over once state debt starts to be repaid and debt levels are at a manageable level. You can't fool the public into a believing the worst has past.

Anonymous said...

Everyone knows unemployment is a lagging indicator, not a leading one. Pointless to try to use unemployment stats to predict the future as they reflect the past - i.e. what we already know.

Look at leading indicators for evidence of green shoots, not lagging ones.