Saturday, 31 January 2009

The true cost of the financial crash

UK unemployment is rising quickly. The last available data from the Labour Force Survey is for October, when the rate reached 6.2 percent. That number is going to jump when the December data is released.

Increasing unemployment is the last link in a chain of misfortune that started with reckless monetary policy. Low interest rates generated an unsustainable housing bubble. When it finally busted, it left in its wake a banking crisis, and collapsing consumer confidence. In turn, this led to a contraction in GDP and mounting job losses.

All UK housing bubbles have ended this way.


AntiCitizenOne said...

The real rise could be due to "more flexible working" i.e. people working less days per week and less overtime.

It's more accurate to look at income tax receipts.

Josh said...

3 million unemployed by christmas.

Anonymous said...

I would say over 4 million: already, London has gone very quiet for January. It was busy up until the holidays, but now getting quieter by the day.

Man in a Shed said...

Another of my friend laid off on Friday.

There are a lot of middle class people losing their jobs, savings, houses right now ....

J said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
J said...

"The real rise could be due to "more flexible working" i.e. people working less days per week and less overtime.

It's more accurate to look at income tax receipts."

The REAL RISE is people losing their jobs. I have not heard of unemployment rising because of more flexible working. More flexible working may in some, rare cases aid companies when they are growing (before they recruit additional staff).

In my town the actual number of people unemployed has risen from 950 in May to 1,750 in November. The unpublished (but official) figure as of last week was 2,350. These are people who has lost jobs not because of more flexible working but because of their firms going bust.

The companies that have gone bust or who have closed plants include Ceramaspeed (300-400 losses), Sealine (200+), Titan (90+), Woolworths (40+), and so on.

J said...

I agree 3 million by Christmas.

Though 4 million is probably just as accurate if you count those that are not counted - the hundreds of thousands aged over 60 who used to be counted before MIG/Pension Credit, those on training and those who close their claims when they do not qualify for benefits (such as the self-employed).

Mark Wadsworth said...

"All UK housing bubbles have ended this way."

Exactly. The key is working out how to prevent bubbles - or more fundamentally, to wean the home-owning electorate off the idea that rising prices are A Good Thing. They are not. They are a terrible thing.

Anonymous said...

I closed my claim when it turned out that I didn't qualify for benefits. Amazing to find out you don't qualify for anything...
Self employed will receive nothing because no Class 1 employer contributions. If your wife works then nothing.
Basically its a fortnight trip to the job centre for absolutely nothing.
So I should imagine, given the large number of self employed in the UK, that the real number of unemployed is much larger.

AntiCitizenOne said...

What I mean is that the fall in employment is understated e.g. by companies paying for 4 days instead of 5 days per week.

J said...

Very few self employed people know that despite paying thousands of pounds a year in tax and NI, even for decades when they come to claim contribution-based Jobseeker's Allowance they get nothing.

This in turn adds fuel to one of the oldest complaints about benefits - that someone can get benefit having contributed nothing to the economy, but someone else (as above) gets nothing.

AntiCitizenOne - see what you mean. Yeap short-time / temporary stopped are not counted in the official count. It is very difficult to give an accurate number. At our local JCP there are only 6 people claiming on the short-time basis, but over 200 are off locally at the moment. The system is simply too complicated, intrusive and unpleasant for many of these people to claim.

Anonymous said...

Don't forget all the Polish etc leaving the country. Their jobs have gone too but won't show up in the figures. Their pounds earned are now being spent back home and not in the UK.

J said...

I hope they have remembered to cancel their Child Benefit claims.

Anonymous said...

Is it just me, but the traffic in London has become a little quieter. Thinking about the M25 at 7.30am in the morning.

Anonymous said...

I agree: London has become very quiet. Was in Camden Market (usually very packed), now a pleasant and calm place.

As for the current state of the UK welfare system, unemployment, British socialism, tosers like Tony Benn, as a self-employed person ineligable for job seekers allowance, I say this: I will do anything to provide for my family because I have no choice. Don't get in my way.

Ellis said...

M1 and North Circ. very quiet these days.

Armageddon Thru To You said...

Armageddon Thru To You

If you've been wondering why it seems like the world around us is unraveling, it's because the last days as foretold in the bible are now upon us. Just as it was 2000 years ago, many were unable to discern the signs of Jesus Christ's first coming (Mat 16:3), as will many concerning his second coming, which will occur very soon. Yes many have proclaimed a similar sentiment many times in the past, but their errors have no bearing on today other than to lull you into spiritual apathy, and that too was prophesied to occur in the last days.

If you're not a believer in Jesus Christ because you're an atheist, consider that the underlying impetus for your disbelief is most likely borne of pride and here's why:

When we die, if you as an atheist were right, then there is no upside or downside for anyone regarding the afterlife. We will all simply cease to exist

However if we Christians were right about our belief in the afterlife, then we will be given eternal life and you as an atheist will receive eternal damnation

Given the choices, the position held by an atheist is a fools bet any way you look at it because the atheist has everything to lose and nothing to gain. It is tantamount to accepting a “heads I win, tails you lose” coin toss proposition from someone. And that someone by the way is Satan (see Ephesians 6:12).

The only way to explain the attitude held by an atheist is pride, pure and simple. The intellectually dishonest and/or tortured reasoning used by atheists to try and disprove the existence of God is nothing more than attempts to posture themselves as superior (a symptom of pride). And as anyone who has read their bible knows, this is precisely the character flaw that befell Lucifer, God's formerly most high angel. (Isaiah 14:12-15). Is it any wonder then why the bible is so replete with references to pride as the cause of mankind's downfall?

Pride permeates our lives and burdens us in ways that most of us seldom recognize. Ironically, pride is the one thing that can blind someone to things even the unsighted can see. And sadly pride will blind many with an otherwise good heart, to accepting the offer of eternal salvation that Christ bought and paid for with his life.

In any event, if you're an atheist, I wish you only the best for every day of the rest of your life because for you, this life is as close to heaven as you'll ever get, but for believers in Christ, this life is as close to hell as we'll ever get.

If you're not a believer and follower of Jesus Christ because you are of another faith, please take the time to very carefully compare your faith to Christianity and ask yourself, why is the bible the only religious book with both hundreds of proven prophecies already fulfilled as well as those being fulfilled today? No other religion can claim anything remotely close to this fact. Many Christians who are serious students of bible prophecy are already aware of the role and significance of bible prophecy in foretelling end time events. God gave us prophecy as evidence of his divine holiness to know the begining from the end (Isa 46:10). God also believed prophecy to be so important that to those willing to read the most prophetic book in the bible, the Book of Revelation, he promised a special blessing (see Rev 1:3), and this is the only book in the bible that God gives its reader a special blessing for reading. Something to think about.

Don't risk losing Christ's offer of eternal life by not accepting him as your savior and by thinking that the bible is nothing more than a compilation of unrelated and scattered stories about people who lived 2,000 plus years ago. If you take the time to study (not just read) the bible, you will literally be shocked to learn things you would have never imagined would be revealed in it. Did you know that like parables, God also uses particular months and days in the Jewish calendar, Jewish Feasts and customs, solar and lunar phases, celestial alignments, gematria (Hebrew numerology) early bible events and more as patterns and models to foretell future events?

Consider the following interesting facts about the bible that testify to its God-inspired authorship:

Did you know that in Gen 12:2, God said he would bless Israel?. How else can you explain the grossly disproportionate level of success achieved by Jewish people as a tiny minority in the world, especially after all they have gone through? And how can you explain the success achieved by the tiny nation of Israel, surrounded by enemies outnumbering them 100 to 1 and yet still they remain victorious in all their wars?

Did you know that as evidence to indicate that Israel is the epicenter of the world from God's point of view is the fact that languages to the west of Israel are written and read from left to right as if pointing to Israel, and languages from countries to the east of Israel are written and read from right to left, again as though pointing to Israel. Just a coincidence, you say? I think not.

Did you know that the six days of creation and seventh day of rest in Genesis is a model for the six thousand years of this age (ending very soon), that is to be followed by a 1,000 year millennial reign by Christ (see 2 Peter 3:8)? Adam was born sometime prior to 4000 B.C., therefore our 6000 years are almost up.

Did you kow that the Gospel of Jesus Christ is hidden in the meaning of the Hebrew names listed in the genealogy of the book of Genesis (Research it online)? To deny this was God-inspired, one has to instead believe that a group of Jewish rabbis conspired to hide the Christian Gospel right inside a genealogy of their venerated Torah, which is not a very plausible explanation.

Did you know that solar eclipses, which the bible describes as the sun being black as sackcloth, and lunar eclipses, which the bible refers to as blood red moons, have prophetic meaning? Research it online. God showed Adam (and us) his plan for man's redemption through the use of celestial alignments. (research Mazzaroth online)

Did you know that much of the symbolism in the book of revelation refers to planetary alignments that will occur when certain events occur as prophesied? These planetary alignments also explained the birth of Christ, just search out The Bethlehem Star movie on the Internet.

Did you know that the references in Eze 39:4-17 and Rev 19:17-21 in the battle of Gog/Magog and Armageddon respectively, in which birds of prey will eat the flesh of the dead in battle from two enormous wars is based on fact? The largest bird migration in the world consisting of bilions of birds (34 species of raptors and various carrion birds) from several continents converge and fly over Israel every spring and fall. Coincidence? I think not.

Did you know that Hebrew numerology, also known as Gematria, and the numbers with biblical and prophetic significance are hidden in the Star of David? Google the video called "Seal of Jesus Christ"

Did you know that the seven Churches mentioned at the beginning of the Book of Revelation describe the seven stages the Church will go through?

There are literally hundreds of hidden messages in the bible like these that testify to the fact that the bible was God inspired, and statistically speaking, are all exponentially beyond the likelihood of any coincidence. You can find them yourselves if you only take the time to look into it. Remember Proverbs 25:2 "It is the glory of God to conceal a matter; to search out a matter is the glory of kings".

And finally, if you are Catholic, or one who subscribes to the emergent Church or seeker-friendly Church movement, please compare the doctrine taught, advocated or accepted by your Church, with the actual bible, notwithstanding some new-age version of the bible. And remember that although the bible is often referred to as the living bible, the word "living" was never intended to imply in any way that the bible "evolves" over time to meet, or be consistent with, the standards of man. It's just the opposite.

Well, am I getting through to you? If not, the answer might be explained in the response given by Jesus Christ in his Olivet discourse when he was asked by his disciples why he spoke the way he did (in parables, etc.) in the book of Matthew 13:10-16. What Jesus said could have easily been paraphrased more clearly as "so that the damned won't get it". Why did Christ respond the way he did when asked why he spoke this way? Is there something about pride (the bible says there is) that closes one's heart to seeing or hearing the messages supernaturally hidden in bible parables, models, typologies, and similes, etc.? That should give you something to think about, but don't take too long. Time is now very short.

If it sometimes seems like there are powers at work behind the powers we know, remember what it says in Ephesians 6:12 "For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms." If you study the bible, it will become clearer.

And by the way, if you are a scoffer, this too was prophesied to occur in the last days. See 2 Peter 3:3.

Thank you and God Bless you! (at)