Tuesday, 30 December 2008

UK property prices - how far, how much?

The end of the year is almost upon us. Would anyone like to take a crack at forecasting next year's UK average house price change?

I'll start the ball rolling by predicting that the Halifax index will fall 10 percent year on year.

10 comments:

vado said...

I say higher - 15 percent


VADO

Markbaldy said...

No higher - at least 20%
We have been in a period of denial, where people selling their houses have been hoping that the recession would be a short blip and there would be a return to double digit house price inflation and the "good" times would return.
But, that is not the case is it - Gordon Brown's gravy train has hit the buffers and recession will quickly turn into depression.
There will be huge numbers of unemployed and firms going to the wall and the recent cuts in interest rates will actually make things worse as imports become more expensive and pensioners have less income (from their savings) to spend.
Not a pretty picture is it... thanks to Gordon Brown's policies of borrow, spend, borrow...

sobers said...

If prices have fallen 10-15% from their peak when unemployment had not begun to kick in, surely the decline will accelerate into 2009 as the jobless total rises? I predict 3m unemployed by end of 2009, and if the CML figures for repossessions (75K) are anywhere near the money I can't see prices falling by less than 20% in 2009. Probably 25-30%.

At the moment most sellers are not 100% forced sellers. They may want to move (divorce, job changes etc) but are not yet HAVING to move. When that tipping point is reached prices will go into freefall. People will price to sell, just to get it off their hands. It will be carnage.

cheapieme said...

25%

Budvar said...

With average asking prices of £150k for houses in the land of Karen Matthews and suicide bombers, I think house prices have a lot further to fall just yet.

http://www.nestoria.co.uk/dewsbury-moor/property/buy

electro-kevin said...

We're ALL in the land of suicide bombers and Karen Matthews now.

That's Nu Lab's true achievement.

Anonymous said...

22% in 2009

14% in 2010

-to be very specific. There will be almost no activity in the property market,apart from forced sales.

By the end of next year it will be clear to everyone that Gormless Clown's fiscal stimulus was a complete and utter FAILURE.

Still, chin up!

Anonymous said...

The Dec 09 contracts on the IPD would suggest a 20% fall next year with a further 2.5% drop in 2010 (see http://www.dtz.com/static_files/Global/Static%20Files/DTZ%20TP%20Monthly%20Newsletter%20December%202008.pdf).

At 4.56, the current ave price/ ave earnings ratio is significantly off the high of 5.8 but with an expected overshoot below the long term average of 4.00, it feels like next year's drop will be closer to 20% than 10%.

Anonymous said...

I'd agree with other comments. 35% peak to trough still looks a good estimate, and one that is increasingly shared by mainstream commentators. We've had 15-18% so far, so I would predict the same for 2009 and then a further dribble of reductions in H1 2010 before prices will bump along the bottom for a few years.

John Pickworth said...

I believe some of us were predicting hefty falls some months ago (based upon the Asian experience) and so it has largely come to pass.

Not only am I convinced we'll also see some big reductions in 2009 but I'm also expecting another major wobble when interest rates eventually begin to rise, coupled with falling real incomes.

So, pencil me in for 20% in 2009 and another 15% in 2010.

Housing, as a form of investment, is dead. As in Asia, it could be ten years before property regains it recent prices.