The world is fourteen months into the credit crunch, yet it has not appeared in much of the data.
Sure, housing credit is harder to obtain in the sense that banks aren't giving out liar loans, high LTV loans or high income multiple loans. Nevertheless, if you go to a bank with a 20 percent deposit and an income of about two and half times your loan request, then the banks will say come on in and take a seat.
Today, the Fed published the latest US consumer credit data. As you can see, it isn't too hard to detect a credit crunch bank in the early 1990s. A few years of flat credit growth is clearly visible. Only in August has credit flatlined.
My sense is that the credit crunch might only be kicking off now.