Of course one will see the recession in U.S. numbers! The Bureau of Economic Analysis (the Department of Commerce) is not some evil agency that mismeasures the data on purpose.
The way that the remarkable Q1 and Q2 growth should be interpreted is the following: it is amazing how resilient U.S. consumers have been in the face of record surges in oil prices and inflation and an arguable credit crunch (as you say, Alice, there still seems to be a bit of credit flowing here).
However, that is all about to come to a crashing halt! Q3 is likely to be negative (-0.5%) and Q4 is sure to be a bad one (-2% give or take). Alice is right - the U.S. probably entered a recessionary downturn in July (actually, I said the July part) that is almost certain to post negative growth in the second half of 2008.
In my area, estate agents are still asking for £350-£400g for a one-bed. I estimate that this will be down to £175-£200g by 2010 (yr. 2000 prices, if memory serves).
US retail and food sales are down 3.7 percent compared to a year ago.
5 comments:
betcha won't see the slowdown in the GDP numbers
Of course one will see the recession in U.S. numbers! The Bureau of Economic Analysis (the Department of Commerce) is not some evil agency that mismeasures the data on purpose.
The way that the remarkable Q1 and Q2 growth should be interpreted is the following: it is amazing how resilient U.S. consumers have been in the face of record surges in oil prices and inflation and an arguable credit crunch (as you say, Alice, there still seems to be a bit of credit flowing here).
However, that is all about to come to a crashing halt! Q3 is likely to be negative (-0.5%) and Q4 is sure to be a bad one (-2% give or take). Alice is right - the U.S. probably entered a recessionary downturn in July (actually, I said the July part) that is almost certain to post negative growth in the second half of 2008.
Retail sales have been distressed since June.
Rebecca
Overdue recognition that the US housing bubble is only about halfway through its decline is now becoming the consensus...
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/10/quelle-surprise-experts-now-say-home.html
The UK is following. And the decline will be even greater, because so was the ascent. Expect 50% or more, high to low (probably early 2010).
...
We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.
T S Eliot, Little Gidding
Where does 50% take us back to, MG? 2001? 2002?
In my area, estate agents are still asking for £350-£400g for a one-bed. I estimate that this will be down to £175-£200g by 2010 (yr. 2000 prices, if memory serves).
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