Sunday, 5 October 2008

Alice's weekend bubble wrap

Merkel vows to save German banks

She better come to the table with a big fat cheque book.

Gordon Brown must grasp the nettle of the financial crisis

There is no shortage of advice for our hapless PM. Nevertheless, the Telegraph makes one important point:

"Last week finance ministers finally faced up foursquare to the credit crisis.... but far more important was that the biggest, longest-lived and most dangerous misconception of all died: that governments could get through this without forking out billions of tax­payer bucks to rescue the financial system."

U.K. Chancellor Doesn't Rule Out Further Help for Failing Banks

More chequebook economic policy on its way.

Believe it or not, house prices are going to soar

I believe it not.

Here is yet another example where a journalist profoundly misunderstands how markets work.

"(The) fundamental mismatch of supply and demand, of course, will fuel a new housing boom."

What matters is effective demand, which is demand backed up by cash. When it comes to housing, that cash largely comes from credit. No credit; no demand; no bubble. There is no such thing as a shortage. Either you can buy a house at the prevailing price or you can't.

Credit crunch: A sickness in the heart of Britain

More bad hair days in Britain....

"Jo Banks, who owns the Heart Hair and Beauty Salon in the county town of Hertford, says her customers are saving money in these troubled financial times by postponing having their legs waxed. 'Clients are still coming in, but they really are holding out until it's absolutely essential,' she says. When clients do come in, she says, the credit crunch is now the main topic of conversation."

The downturn worsens

Econobrowser discusses the US slowdown.

Brian Lenihan's audacious deal has earned him nation's respect

People will always love a politician who guarantees to make everyone rich. But just wait, the Irish taxpayer will pay for Lenihan's popularity.

Did JPM Cash Call Bring Down Lehman ?

A big picture conspiracy theory. The lawyers will love it.

Iceland plans to inject $13.9 bln into banks

The Icelandic government is going to use pension funds to prop up their failing banks. Mmmm, I wonder if that is a good idea?

Oiling the financial machine

"John Hole, a Hereford-based trader selling ceramic wall and floor tiles, has just received a letter from his bank telling him that the interest charge on his overdraft of £20,000 will go up three percentage points this month. “It means I’ll be paying 12% instead of 9%."

Despite petrodollars, Iranians struggle to make ends meet

Better stop building those nukes:

"Sitting atop the world’s second-largest gas and oil reserves, Iran earned an estimated $80 billion in energy sales in the last fiscal year as fuel prices spiked. But that windfall has not reached most of the population, whose living standards have plummeted."

Mutley on the credit crunch

Even dogs have an angle to spin on the current crisis.


electro-kevin said...

House prices

Demand will be affected by people lowering their expectations - multi-generational occupancy of housing, adults living at home even longer with mum and dad.

electro-kevin said...

... and people letting out spare bedrooms.

dearieme said...

"multi-generational occupancy of housing": I hope not - my parents are dead.

dearieme said...

Mind you, if a big inflation gets underway when the government tries to defeat the imminent deflation, then people will be looking for real assets to replace cash that's sinking in value. Perhaps that's when property prices will recover.

electro-kevin said...

I'm unsure whether to laugh or offer you my condolences, Dearieme.

Bubble was talking about demand affected by availability of credit - this will put a limit on the recovery.

Anonymous said...

house prices may soar indeed.

I am not ruling out at least a mini bout of hyper inflation.