Friday, 26 September 2008

Can anyone see the bottom?

Here is chart of new housing starts in the US that goes all the way back to 1963.

The August 2008 number was about as bad as it gets. It was just a little over 400,000. Normally, this level of construction is only reached in the depths of a recession, like back in the early 1990s, the Reagan recession and the mid-1970s.

However, the decline on home contruction appears to have extraordinary momentum. It wouldn't be surprising if in the next couple of months, new home starts reached an all time historical low.

As hard as it is to believe, the US housing crash is about to get much worse.


dearieme said...

I can see why there might still be housing finishes, but am surprised at the high (!) number of starts. Where are they? Surely not Florida or Socal?

P.S. Is a "start" the actual ground-scraping, or is it some sort of permission being granted?

Alice Cook said...

I think it is where there are construction workers on site. The US produces another number called new permits.

Anonymous said...

I live in Colorado Springs Colorado we built 5100 homes in 2005 we are on pace for just under 1000. I just moved into a 700000 dollar house for 2000 a month in rent. I can see the entire city below as I type. We are screwed!!!!!!!