If the latest retail sales data is to be believed, shoppers went mad in May. The numbers show a sharp rise in activity. In fact, year-over-year, the monthly increase was 8 percent. These numbers appear to contradict the pessimistic message of the Bank of England's agent survey. The BoE agents reported that firms were experiencing declining turnover and rising costs.
I am not sure I believe these retail numbers, but if they are true, then the demise of UK growth is greatly exaggerated. With such strong retail growth, the MPC should be thinking of some sizable rate increases. Or perhaps the MPC are skeptical also.
5 comments:
Retail sales up in May? No way!
Well, how exactly are these figures calculated?
If they're measuring the amount of money taken at the checkout, then they could just be telling us how much more expensive things have gotten.
Reports I've read in the press who asked retail managers suggested 'May was surprisingly sunny. A lot of people had barbecues that month'.
Yes. Sales up:
- Lots of discounted goods on offer
- denial among debtors
- effects of inflation/taxes haven't fully struck home yet
- one last fling from those who've seen over the precipice
Good blog. I got here via Angels in Marble.
We can hope that this strong data encourages more talk that might lead to rate rises - not this month, however, I expect.
Alice - like Kevin, so did I. I think you should pay HG a commission!
Interesting and very informative stuff - and I shall try to make a point to visit daily if possible. Keep up the good work.
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