CML members pumped £25.3 billion into the housing market last month. However, the CML could not decide whether this was a good or bad number. On the one hand, it was a 5 percent increase from March, but on the other hand it was an 8 percent decline from April 2007.
The CML became rather excited about the timing of Easter. Apparently, they normally expect a fall in gross lending activity from March to April. This year, Easter was in March, and this seems to have affected the monthly profile this year. Neverthess, for March and April combined, lending was down 16 percent from 2007 levels.
The CML also published their housing market forecasts for the rest of 2008. UK lenders do not expect anything good:
Overall, it looks a rather weird forecast; everything is falling at double digit rates except house prices.
Decoding the forecast, the CML appear to be expecting a lot of denial from house sellers. Lending and sales will collapse, but sellers will cling to the 2007 valuations regardless. Maybe the CML might be right on that one.