Tuesday, 5 February 2008

UK house prices are down almost 5 percent

(click on the chart for a larger version of the chart).

Sometimes you need to see the numbers in a chart in order to understand what is really happening. The Halifax have just issued their index for UK house prices. With it came a barrage of percentages which claimed that house prices were still growing.

However, the chart above illustrates where house prices are heading. UK house prices peaked in July last year. Since then, house prices have fallen by 4.9 percent. In January alone, prices are down 2 percent.

The crash is here. Moreover, it is happening faster than anyone could have imagined.

The raw data can be downloaded here.


traderboy said...

yeah i read the halifax report on the BBC website, there was some crazy percentages being thrown about, it's like they deliberately try to confuse...

House prices were unchanged in January compared to the previous month, according to the Halifax bank.


the country's biggest mortgage lender said that house prices were rising at an annual rate of 4.5%.

then it states

It said that prices fell by 1% in the three months to the end of January compared to the previous quarter.


traderboy said...

The crash is here. Moreover, it is happening faster than anyone could have imagined.

this is what is gonna crush people. the drop is going to be so big and fast, "no-one" will be expecting it. like i said before in a previous post, i can't get over how many £800k-£1.2m properties are in the estate agents windows in my humble little area of central london...with the City on the verge of some big layoffs, and bonuses down substantially in places (i hear on the grapevine), all the young investment bankers who used to be willing to leverage up to buy that sort of place will just not be buying. so stuff has to reprice.

i can't wait.

Panos Konstantinidis said...

The come of age...

ali jalali said...

No sign of price erosion in the Notting Hill area. 2 beds still getting £700-£1 mill. Double the price of 3 years ago. Crash? I think not.

Anonymous said...

i'm writing from italy.
Situation is dangerous...we don't have a official home index price.
This was comunicated to OECD from Bankitalia(National central bank) years ago.
Official agency show false prices.
Example in Rome Official agency show 3000 euro for mq in better zone but the real price is more than double...more.
ecb.int use this data i suspect.
Politics,journalist,sindacalyst and parents pay good house of the governement the half.
Private agencies show information useful just for his associated(home builder,real estate agency and SGR).
Istat....national agency for statistics show false data on index consumer price.
It's very hard to live honestly here.
39% of GDP is black(no taxes and good to reuse bad money)
11% of GDP come from Mafia and other associations.
Biggest company in Italy is Mafia.
I'm sorry but this is true(source www.ansa.it).

Datas reliable are NTN(number of sales)...in Rome -10% difference first six months 2006 and 2007.
Milan -13%
Italy -3,4%
We must expect march 2008 to see second six months 2007.
Other useful informations are:
to bought a house italian need 22 years loans against 18 5 years ago
debits not paid 2006-2007 +7%
salary is blocked since 5 years.
industrial sector in italian stock exchange:
construction 1 year -31,81%
real estate 1 year -53,28%
banks 1 year -28,48%
all sectors go down since 05/07

minor press start to write any articles since september 2007.
Biggest and national TV and press dont speak.

thank you for your attention.