While everyone might be expecting a recession, there is surprisingly few sign of one in recent economic data. Today, three numbers came out; all indicating that the UK labour market was in fine shape.
First item; unemployment. The number of people out of work was just 1.65 million. It is now at a 32 year low That is genuinely great news, since there is nothing sadder or more painful than unemployment.
Item two; employment numbers; the numbers are strong. The number of people in work increased by 175,000 in the laste quarter to 29.3 million. It is at the highest figure since 1971.
Finally, wage growth - average earnings growth, including bonuses, are chugging along at 4 per cent. No sign of a slowdown there.
These numbers, along with other recent numbers, like the rather perky third quarter GDP numbers, and dreadful recent inflation numbers, all suggest that the economy has not yet slipped significantly. In fact, the only numbers that looks weak are those from the housing market.
There is a danger here for the MPC. Aggressive interest rate reductions while the labour market remains tight might only fuel inflation. It won't however, do much to save the housing market. That wreck is beyond saving; house prices have drifted so far from fundamentals that that only way is down.